It’s Easter weekend, which can only mean one thing in English football: it’s a critical point in the season for the EFL. With only four games remaining in the Championship, there is still a lot to play for.
No team has yet been promoted, the playoffs appear to be a long way off, and there is still a fierce battle at the bottom of the table to avoid being relegated to League One. Indeed, up to 17 of the league’s 24 teams are realistically involved in one of those three battles.
The first round of games begins on Friday, April 18, with the most significant being an all-Midlands clash between Coventry City and West Bromwich Albion, which could have major playoff implications. Meanwhile, Luton Town is fighting to avoid relegation after losing to Derby County twice in a row before hosting top-six contender Bristol City on Monday.
Can Millwall break into the top six? Could Plymouth Argyle make a great escape? Here’s what to look out for during the Championship double header on Friday and Monday:
1. Is automatic promotion all wrapped up?
Leeds couldn’t lose it from here, could they? Daniel Farke’s men have played the best football in the division all season, with 19 leading scorers and a defensive record that would undoubtedly rank among the best in the competition if James Trafford and Burnley hadn’t pulled off miracles.
In a league known for its parity, their non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) per game is 1.2, which is comparable to Barcelona’s dominance in La Liga. The next best in the competition? Coventry scored 0.39.
This is an outstanding team, one that appears to be fully prepared for the Premier League. However, much the same could have been said last year or in 2018-19, when everything fell apart in the final stretch. With four games remaining, Leeds leads by five points.
Farke is working hard to keep his emotions in control. “Never too high, never too low is normally a good mantra to be successful in this league because if you burn like a candle from both sides you don’t have the energy when it counts but without any burning it’s also difficult for a candle,” he said prior to Oxford’s match on Friday.
By then, Leeds will know whether Burnley has surpassed them and, more importantly, whether Sheffield United has closed a points gap that is looking dangerous for Chris Wilder’s team.
After losing their last three games, the Blades are five points behind the top two, though it could be six given the goal difference. Surely, they must defeat Cardiff on Friday and then win the remaining three.
“Pressure is a privilege,” Wilder explained. “That is an excuse, pressure. It is nonsense. “We should embrace it.” They’ll have to. Even then, it may not be enough. Leeds has won its last two games. Burnley’s attack may not be the most visually appealing, but they have remained unbeaten in the league since early November.
These do not appear to be two opposing forces about to concede. Still, Sheffield United has at least one chance. Easter Monday takes them to Turf Moor. If they win there, they will be in serious contention.
The race for promotion
Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds United | 42 | 53 | 88 |
| 2 | Burnley | 42 | 44 | 88 |
| 3 | Sheffield United | 42 | 24 | 83 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 42 | 19 | 76 |
| 5 | Bristol City | 42 | 9 | 64 |
| 6 | Coventry City | 42 | 5 | 63 |
| 7 | West Bromwich Albion | 42 | 12 | 60 |
| 8 | Middlesbrough | 42 | 10 | 60 |
| 9 | Millwall | 42 | 0 | 60 |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 42 | 0 | 56 |
2. Seeking form for the playoff push
Sheffield United may be more concerned about what happens if they do not improve their form in time for the playoffs. The most auspicious word at this point in the season is momentum, and Wilder’s team appears to lack it.
Sunderland hasn’t been the same team they were at the start of the season since February, but they are comfortably positioned fourth. Below them, it’s five to two.
Bristol City currently holds one of those positions, but the Hatters face a difficult trip to Luton on Monday as they fight for their lives.
After that, will Leeds and Preston have much to play for? Since the turn of the year, Liam Manning’s side has been one of the most in-form in the Championship, outperforming many of the teams they are expected to face down the stretch. Beating Sunderland on Friday could be a sign of intent ahead of a playoff game next month.
Coventry emerged from the international break looking like they had timed their burst perfectly, and their second-best npxGD in the division suggests they will be a team to watch if they make the playoffs. Still, Frank Lampard’s side has only four points in as many games and will lose ground to the chasing pack if they fail to beat West Brom.
Middlesbrough is one of them, capable of stringing together positive or negative results. A 2-0 victory over Blackburn at the start of the month propelled them to fifth place; however, defeats to Leeds and Millwall have dropped them to eighth.
The latter’s victory also puts them firmly in contention as they travel to Blackburn. If they win, Blackburn will arguably be eliminated from playoff contention. Given Millwall’s upcoming home games against Norwich and Swansea, neither of whom have much to play for, The Lions appear to be on the verge of breaking into the top six.
3. An almighty relegation scrap
With four games remaining, take a look at the Championship’s foot. It’s three down, and Preston North End and Queens Park Rangers will probably be able to breathe normally thanks to a favorable goal difference.
Indeed, whoever loses at Deepdale on Friday will almost certainly be checking the scores in the dressing room afterwards. Just in case.
“Those 50 points usually mean safety,” Marti Cifuentes, the QPR manager, stated, “but mathematically it’s not done yet and it’s important to try to win the last four games.”
The foot of the Championship
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers | 42 | -6 | 50 |
| 16 | Preston North End | 42 | -8 | 49 |
| 17 | Oxford United | 42 | -17 | 48 |
| 18 | Stoke City | 42 | -11 | 47 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 42 | -16 | 46 |
| 20 | Hull City | 42 | -9 | 45 |
| 21 | Derby County | 42 | -10 | 43 |
| 22 | Cardiff City | 42 | -21 | 42 |
| 23 | Luton Town | 42 | -26 | 40 |
| 24 | Plymouth Argyle | 42 | -38 | 40 |
This is a relegation battle in which everything can change in an instant, as demonstrated when Portsmouth faced Derby last week. Pompey were hovering uncomfortably close to the trap door in the 90th minute, trailing 2-1 at home, when Rob Atkinson scored in the 91st minute to earn them a point and, more importantly, knock two goals off Derby’s tally.
That could be critical because none of the teams occupying 22nd to 24th look completely dead and buried. Luton have won three, drawn three, and lost two games since the beginning of March, and their trip to Derby promises to be pivotal as the Premier League side hopes to avoid League One next season.
Cardiff will be hoping that Sheffield United’s recent troubles continue, and then they will be looking forward to the opportunity to draw promoted Oxford United into the mix.
The U’s, who are in their first season in the second tier, have begun to pull away after a feast of a start under Gary Rowett in December turned into a famine in February and March. Three victories in their last five have put them on the verge of year two in the Championship.
Stoke are also picking up points at the right time, whereas Hull has only lost twice since March. They have the most intriguing fixture list of those on the verge of relegation; could the final two days at home to Derby and away to Portsmouth be decisive this season?
It could depend on what Plymouth can do. When the Pilgrims fired Wayne Rooney on New Year’s Eve, they appeared to be on the verge of collapse, not because of the point difference, but because of the level of performance they were providing.
Their xG since then would still indicate that they are the worst team in the division, and upcoming games against playoff contenders Middlesbrough and Coventry threaten to expose their flaws. However, this time of year is typically ripe for miracles.
Predictions
Top two: Leeds and Burnley
Play offs: Sheffield United, Sunderland, Coventry City, Middlesbrough
Promoted: Coventry City
Relegation: Cardiff City, Luton Town, Plymouth Argyle
