LONDON — Five teams, each with five games remaining, and three Champions League spots up for grabs.
Nottingham Forest wasn’t supposed to be in that conversation, but they now lead the five-way race after a 2-1 victory over Tottenham on Monday. As a result, Forest are putting the screws to Newcastle United, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Aston Villa.
The Premier League’s excitement is centred on the Champions League race. The title race is almost over, with Liverpool needing only one more win to become champions, which they can do against Spurs at Anfield on Sunday. The relegation battle is nearly over, with Southampton and Leicester already relegated and Ipswich joining them on goal differential.
However, the battle to qualify for next season’s Champions League has become so intense that it is almost certain to last until the campaign’s final day on May 25.
The Premier League teams’ performances in European competition this season have ensured that England will top the UEFA co-efficient table and secure an additional Champions League spot in 2025-26, resulting in five qualification berths instead of four. Liverpool and Arsenal have almost certainly secured the first two spots, leaving three more open.
However, only three points separate Forest in third place and Villa in seventh. Five clubs are so tightly packed that any one could finish third or seventh. A dropped point here or a late goal conceded there could mean the difference between facing Real Madrid in the Champions League next season and spending Thursday nights playing Europe’s lesser lights in the Europa League.
Forest’s win at Spurs on Monday, following back-to-back defeats against Villa and Everton that appeared to have triggered a slide out of the Champions League race, allowed Nuno Espirito Santo’s side to reach 60 points, one point ahead of fourth-place Newcastle.
But everything could change on Tuesday, when Manchester City (fifth, 58 points) hosts Villa (seventh, 57 points) at the Etihad. Regardless of what happens between Pep Guardiola’s team and Unai Emery’s side on Tuesday, Forest will remain in the top five. But between now and the final games on May 25, each of the five teams vying for the three remaining spots will play a football version of snakes-and-ladders.
Nobody could have predicted Forest’s remarkable season this season after finishing 17th last season, one place above the relegation trapdoor, but Nuno’s team has been able to keep pace with the more fancied sides thanks to their organisation, team ethic, and the goals of Chris Wood, who increased his Premier League tally to 19 against Spurs.
But, following their recent wobble, can Forest now hold their nerve and qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 1980-81? Their remaining run-in schedule is relatively favourable, with Brentford at home and Crystal Palace away next, followed by a home game against relegated Leicester and a trip to struggling West Ham.
If Forest are still in contention after that run of games, they will face Chelsea at the City Ground on the final day in what could be a Champions League decider.
Newcastle’s fixture list, meanwhile, appears more difficult, especially since there is no word on when or if manager Eddie Howe will be able to return to work after being hospitalised with pneumonia. Saturday’s home game against Ipswich Town should be easy, but then come tougher tests against Brighton away, Chelsea at home, Arsenal away, and Everton at St James’ Park on the final day.
Man City’s biggest challenge could be Tuesday’s game against Villa, because after that, Guardiola’s team faces Wolves at home, Southampton away, Bournemouth at home, and Fulham away. Regardless of their struggles this season, City should finish in the top five based on their fixture list.
Chelsea appears to be the team facing the most difficult challenge. Enzo Maresca’s side, who are already outside the top five after only two wins in their last five league games, face Everton at Stamford Bridge on Saturday before playing Liverpool at home and Newcastle away.
A home game against Manchester United on May 16 could provide Chelsea with much-needed relief before their season concludes at Forest. Chelsea will most likely need to win four of their last five games to secure a top-five spot, which appears to be a tall order given their current form.
Villa? Last Saturday’s 4-1 victory over Newcastle provided Emery’s side with a Champions League lifeline, but they must avoid defeat at City on Tuesday to avoid becoming outsiders for a top five finish.
If they can get a good result at the Etihad, games against Fulham at home and Bournemouth away will provide opportunities to gain momentum before finishing the season with back-to-back games against Spurs at home and Manchester United away.
And don’t forget Spurs and Manchester United, even if their fans would like to erase this season from their memories. If they meet in the Europa League final in Bilbao on May 21 — Spurs face Bodo/Glimt, while United face Athletic Club in the semifinals next month — the winner will advance to the Champions League and increase the Premier League’s representation to six teams the following season.
Right now, that would be a match between 14th-placed Manchester United and 16th-placed Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League. It is possibly the lowest-quality Champions League playoff in history.
But at the top of the table, five teams are vying for three spots in the competition, and the race will guarantee fireworks in the final month of the season.
