The Premier League title and relegation races are almost over, leaving only the battle for a Champions League spot next season to entice neutrals.
Liverpool’s virtually unassailable lead at the summit ensures that they will compete in Europe’s premier competition next season, while Arsenal, in second place, will do the same unless they collapse.
However, things are much tighter below the Premier League’s top two. Manchester City’s last-gasp victory over top-five rivals Aston Villa on Tuesday evening added another twist, with plenty more narrative shifts expected in the season’s final weeks.
With that in mind, here’s who the highly regarded Opta supercomputer believes will qualify for the Champions League.
Supercomputer predicts Premier League top five
After removing Liverpool and Arsenal from the equation, five teams remain in contention for Champions League qualification. Following Matheus Nunes’ crucial stoppage-time winner in midweek, Manchester City are in the best position to finish in the top five.
Pep Guardiola, who has never failed to qualify for the Champions League as a manager, has seen a mini resurgence from his team in recent weeks, and the Cityzens have risen to third place as a result.
They are only behind Wolverhampton Wanderers in the form table (yes, Wolves have won their last five matches) and have a 95.52% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
City’s relatively straightforward fixture list gives them hope for a perfect finish in their final four games, while Nottingham Forest, another top-five contender, has a similarly favorable schedule.
Aside from a final-day clash with Chelsea, the Midlands side faces teams with nothing to play for in their remaining fixtures and is given an 81.39% chance of qualifying for the Champions League as a result.
Forest’s much-needed victory away to Tottenham Hotspur on Monday night propelled them above Newcastle United in the standings, and the Magpies are still expected to finish in the top five despite their collapse at Villa Park last weekend.
Their chances are less likely now, but Villa’s midweek defeat at the Etihad Stadium has strengthened their position. They have a 77.5% chance of returning to Europe’s top competition.
Newcastle still has to face Chelsea before the end of the season, which is one of several difficult games for Enzo Maresca’s side. The Blues, who have been extremely inconsistent, face Everton (H), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), Manchester United (H), and Forest (A) in their final five games, and that fixture list may prove too much for them. Following a tumultuous second half of the season, they have a 29.06% chance of finishing in the top five.
Villa are the only other team with a realistic chance of finishing fifth or higher, with Bournemouth given a 0.04% chance of beating the odds. Unai Emery’s team has had the unenviable task of juggling European football while attempting to return to the Champions League, and while they are still in the running, they have only a 16.5% chance of making the top five following a crushing defeat in Manchester on Tuesday.
Predicted Premier League top five
| Position | Team | Chances of finishing in top five | Predicted points tally |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Liverpool | 100% | 88.98 |
| 2. | Arsenal | 99.99% | 76.05 |
| 3. | Man City | 95.52% | 69.43 |
| 4. | Nottingham Forest | 81.39% | 68.26 |
| 5. | Newcastle | 77.5% | 67.49 |
| 6. | Chelsea | 29.06% | 64.04 |
| 7. | Aston Villa | 16.5% | 63.97 |
| 8. | Bournemouth | 0.04% | 55.75 |
