So three is about to turn six. When the final details of Ipswich’s relegation are confirmed, which will almost certainly be this weekend, the last six Championship teams will have regressed immediately.
It’s not new information, with the trapdoor closing inexorably on the promoted three since Wolves finally pulled their fingers out a couple of months ago, but the magnitude of that trio’s failure becomes clearer by the week.
The traditional ’40-point barrier’ has only rarely been an actual requirement for Premier League survival, but the sight of teams stumbling to mathematical safety more than a month before the season ends without having reached that mark is still shocking.
And things weren’t much different last season, with Nottingham Forest’s points deduction providing an inaccurate picture of how close the promoted and immediately relegated teams were to those above them. Forest were not good last season, but without the points deduction, they would have finished a comfortable 10 points ahead of Luton.
Everyone else was at least 13 points ahead of the bottom three.
Last year’s relegated teams combined for a meagre 66 points from 114 games, and this year’s are trending even lower, with an unlikely 16 points needed from their final 15 games to match last year’s historically weak bottom three.
And, just like last year, the bottom three have gotten worse as the season progressed. These are not teams that are taking a little too long to catch up to the pace of the Premier League and adjust; these are teams that have realised to their horror just how far behind they are and are sliding ever further out of their depth as the early-season bubbles of post-promotion optimism pop one by one.
One year of this could be dismissed as an anomaly, but two is getting uncomfortable. It may not yet be necessary for the Premier League to consider taking direct action to address the problem – another valid question is whether the Premier League considers this to be a problem at all – but if something similar occurs again next season, the discussion will be unavoidable.
Especially if Sheffield United, like Leeds and Burnley, have another failed attempt at the top flight. If three large clubs with recent Premier League experience are unable to bridge the gap, what hope is there for anyone else?
Leeds were fantastic value the last time they were promoted and should be expected to give it their all, but it’s also worth noting that the last time they were promoted, they ended up with one of the world’s most iconic and influential coaches, as well as a man who could well win the Ballon d’Or and a Patrick Bamford who scored several goals. That’s a lot of lightning to try to capture again.
Even so, it only worked briefly. Burnley and Sheffield United are already two of the clubs to have dropped straight back down after rising to prominence, highlighting a contingent parachute-payment-related issue of a growing coterie of clubs that exist in perpetual limbo, too small for the Premier League and too large for the Championship.
It is also worth noting that the six clubs that have completed the promotion-relegation double-header in the last two years have all f*cked it in different ways. Some have foolishly believed that the football that propelled them out of the Championship could also keep them in the Premier League.
Others were simply promoted too early in their cycle to be able to cope. Some have tried both. Some people insisted on Chris Wilder.
They all have ways to mitigate relegation, but none are immune to criticism for not making it interesting.
And any doom-and-gloom discussion of this topic must acknowledge that the three teams that were promoted before the forlorn six were Nottingham Forest, Fulham, and Bournemouth, all of whom are doing very well now, thank you very much.
However, the most sensible prediction for next season’s Premier League table would be Leeds in 18th, Burnley in 19th, and whoever wins the play-offs filling in the gaps. Then Palace comes in 12th, because Palaces are always 12th.
Last year, promoted teams may have viewed Forest and Everton as potential candidates for the crucial ‘if we just finish above…’ position. Where is the team now?
Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur will not be flirting with the 40-point mark again next season because United will buy an Amorim-appropriate squad and Spurs will appoint an actual football manager, who will almost certainly not be Scott Parker.
Everton are upbeat, Wolves have hired a proper manager to get some reasonable results out of a very good squad, and Forest are off to the Champions League.
This summer, various clubs in the Premier League’s burgeoning’middle class’ may face some unavoidable roadblocks. Bournemouth will almost certainly lose two or three players, possibly including the manager.
Brentford will almost certainly lose Bryan Mbeumo, who has only one year left on his contract. Wolves will undoubtedly lose Matheus Cunha.
However, the overwhelming likelihood in all of these cases is that each of those clubs will adapt and cope as they have in the past, their Premier League status and wealth reinforced by another year of service, and all of those setbacks serving to bolster the coffers.
They will still be in a better position than promoted clubs with insufficient squads for the new challenges and two managers who have already failed spectacularly at that higher level. Leeds are already considering getting rid.
It leaves only West Ham looking remotely vulnerable next season. That’s a pretty shocking indictment of a club with those resources, but on balance, you’d say they’re more likely to improve than regress as a result of a Graham Potter pre-season and inevitable additional squad investment.
Things can and will change. Things may and will surprise us. However, no member of the Existing Seventeen appears to be in danger of falling significantly short of 40 points, and there is little reason to believe that any of the promoted clubs will be able to make a difference.
We wonder if it isn’t time to take drastic measures, such as relaxing the FFP rules for promoted sides.
