As we enter 100 days into Donald Trump’s second term, his economic promises—from tax cuts to stimulus checks—are causing debate. Ideas like eliminating the federal overtime tax and a possible DOGE Dividend are gaining attention, though they face both legislative and technical challenges.
While some of these plans could lead to major changes, such as reducing inflation and providing financial relief, others are still uncertain. Let’s dive into what is being proposed and who could benefit if these ideas move forward.
What Is the DOGE Dividend and How Might It Work?
One of the major stimulus ideas discussed is the DOGE Dividend. This concept, first proposed by investor James Fishback, has gained attention thanks to Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Essentially, the DOGE Dividend would give households a stimulus check, but only for those who pay taxes—leaving out low-income taxpayers who get more in tax credits than they pay in taxes.
Originally, the plan suggested a $2 trillion stimulus, but now, it is expected to be much smaller at around $150 billion. This would mean only households with a positive net tax would qualify, meaning many low-income families might not get the benefit.
Who Would Qualify for the DOGE Dividend?
This stimulus check is designed for people who are tax contributors—those who pay more in taxes than they receive in credits. According to Pew Research, people earning less than $40,000 annually tend to receive more in credits than they owe, so they would not benefit from the DOGE Dividend. This has caused concern, as the plan might end up being unfair to many low-income individuals.
The Debate Over the DOGE Dividend’s Impact
Some economists argue that injecting too much liquidity (extra money) into the economy could lead to inflation. Aaron Razon, an analyst from CouponSnake, warns that stimulus checks could increase demand for products and push prices higher. Meanwhile, Joseph Camberato, from National Business Capital, agrees, saying, “We saw the effect in the pandemic. Although the impact was minor, there are still risks.”
However, James Fishback argues that people who get the DOGE Dividend would likely save or pay off debt, rather than spend it quickly, reducing the inflationary risk.
Trump’s Efforts to Reduce Inflation
Trump has promised to lower inflation, which has been a serious problem, especially for everyday items like eggs, which saw a rise of 26% due to bird flu. Although inflation dropped from 3% to 2.4% between January and March 2025, some products remain high. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that while fruits and vegetables became cheaper, processed foods stayed expensive.
These economic conditions make it even more important for any stimulus checks to be targeted to those who truly need them, rather than giving money to those who may already be doing well.
The Challenges of Implementing New Stimulus Programs
Although the idea of a DOGE Dividend has grabbed attention, experts believe it is unlikely to become a reality anytime soon. Many hurdles stand in the way of approval, including legislative processes and the financial deficit. Lucas Barcelo, a financial expert, says that the Trump administration will need “early victories” to build public support, but Camberato warns that giving away money doesn’t make sense with the current deficit.
Additionally, there is uncertainty around Elon Musk’s involvement in these plans. Musk has hinted that he might leave the DOGE Department and focus more on Tesla and SpaceX, which could cause further delays or even kill the idea.
Effects of Past Stimulus Checks
Looking back at the COVID-19 stimulus checks in 2020-2021, we saw a 9% increase in durable goods prices, according to the Federal Reserve. This shows that stimulus checks can have both positive and negative effects—helping people but also potentially increasing inflation.
While some argue that targeting tax contributors could prevent “excess liquidity,” others, like Lucas Barcelo, warn that without proper financial education, people might waste the money, making the stimulus less effective.
What’s Next for Stimulus Payments?
While the DOGE Dividend proposal still faces significant challenges, it has sparked a larger conversation about the best ways to provide financial support. Whether it’s through tax breaks, targeted stimulus checks, or reducing inflation, the government will need to find effective ways to balance economic recovery with long-term stability.
If these plans move forward, it’s clear that the future of stimulus checks and their impact on inflation will remain a hot topic in 2025.
